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Let's Limbo! - Odds, Winning & Verifying


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It’s essential to stretch before you start Limbo. Otherwise, you risk hurting yourself bad. Especially if you’re 30+. Don’t worry about looking like a fool while doing the Limbo; everyone does. If you Limbo with co-workers, don’t forget to bring a camera. You will have great pictures for extortion whenever you need someone to cover for you at work



Not that Limbo? Oh, okay.




Coco got himself a rocket which he named Limbo. Unfortunately, Limbo tends to explode at the most inconvenient times. The challenge is to get off the rocket before it explodes. But not too soon. Get off too soon, and your profit will be smaller, get off too late, and you lose all profit.

How far can you go before getting off the rocket? Do you have the nerves of steel that it takes to reach the heights (and profit) others can only dream off? And precisely what are the chances of getting the stars?

Let’s find out!



The bet

I made a bet of 10 Satoshi in the hope of making a profit of 70 Satoshi (10 x 8 = 80 and subtract the initial bet = 70 Satoshi).

The game states that I have a 12.375% chance of hitting my targeted 8x. 100/12.375 = 8.080. So statistically speaking, I should hit 8x once every eight games (that wouldn’t be very profitable!)

For my first try, I got 8x on my 6th try, so I made 10 Satoshi in profit.




On my second try, it took 22 tries to get 8x. Let’s add them together!

6 + 22 = 28 and I got 8x two times, so 28/2 = 14. I’m not a genius at math, but 14 is more than 8!

It doesn’t seem like a 12.375% chance to me! More like 7.149% chance (100/7.149 = 13.987 – close enough!).

Why is that? Is this some kind of scam!?

Let’s try betting the same amount 100 times, and see what happens.




Well, that’s more like it. Out of 100 games, I got 8x 12 times, exactly 12%!

What can we learn from this? First, we can say that a ~12% chance of winning doesn’t mean that every 8th game will give you a win. The possibility of winning can be interpreted in a few different ways.



Large samples

Given a large enough sample, the number of winning games will eventually amount to ~12%. While collecting this large sample, you will sometimes have longer streaks without hitting 8x at all, and other times you will hit 8x several times within a few games. The larger the sample (i.e., the more games you’ve played), the more accurate the chance of winning.


Single sample

Every game you play, you will have a 12% chance of hitting 8x, which means there’s an 88% chance that you lose. On every game you play.



I’ve played 12 games without hitting 8x, which means that 8x has to come within just a couple of games.

Incorrect, sort of. Of course, you will eventually hit 8x, but the chance of hitting 8x doesn’t increase every time you don’t hit it. During the 100 games I played above, my longest streak of not getting 8x was 25 (just to hit 8x twice in a row right after).



There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Famous words attributed to Mark Twain (who himself attributed it to the British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli). But could you claim that statistics lie?

I don’t think so. You can, however, misinterpret statistics or misrepresent them to mislead someone. Now I don’t believe the statistics at BC.game is misleading. But I understand how it might seem that way for someone who doesn’t know how to interpret it. When it says you have a 12% chance of winning, it’s 100% correct.




If you were to try and hit the green ring by throwing darts from a 10 feet distance, you wouldn’t expect it to grow bigger every time you missed, would you? It’s precisely the same as the chance of winning works.


Provably fair

As with all in-house games at BC.game, Limbo is provable fair. Let’s check if my last bet in Limbo was fair or if someone scammed me out of 1 BB coin.




The output will look like this.



Take the first 13 numbers from hmac_sha256


convert it to decimal form using any hexadecimal converter


the decimal number needs to be divided by the maximum value (HEX) fffffffffffff

fffffffffffff = 4503599627370495 in decimals.

3756487196347878 / 4503599627370495 = 0.83410771541


The house edge is 1% so we need to calculate 99/(1-0.83410771541) = 99/0.16589228459 = 596.772780872

Remove the decimals and divide by 100.

596 / 100 = 5.96

The result of my last Limbo game is 5.96. Less than 8, which means I lost, and no one tried to scam me out of my 1 BB coin.











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